How low can BTC price go? Bitcoin analysis points to $45K

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Bitcoin (BTC) can dip much lower and still preserve its bull market and historical track record.

That is according to the latest BTC price analysis, which paints an optimistic picture of how BTC/USD is performing despite a 10% dip in 24 hours.

BTC price bull market pullbacks often near 40%

Bitcoin is still following the classic road to new macro highs, longtime market participants agree.

Despite increased BTC price volatility around the site of its 2021 all-time highs at $69,000, the current Bitcoin bull run remains wholly intact.

This would remain the case even if a much deeper correction were to occur from current levels near $68,000, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

In comments on X on March 15, the pseudonymous trader known as Bags focused on the upcoming block subsidy halving.

He drew comparisons to previous halving cycles, all of which saw major price pullbacks of nearly 40% before the event, flipping into price discovery later on.

“Currently -38% off of $73.5k = $45.5K,” he wrote, calculating the potential scope of downside from Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs.

When challenged about inflows from the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) buoying the market in a way that was absent in previous cycles, Bags noted that each previous bull market had its own catalysts, which nonetheless failed to prevent a drawdown.

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Bitcoin approaches “danger zone”

Also eyeing price performance in relation to the halving is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.

Related: Bitcoin bull Cathie Wood: ARK Invest BTC price target ‘well above’ $1M

Despite Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high before its 2024 halving — a unique event — he suggests that the timing remains a case of classic bull market posturing.

In a chart uploaded to X, he compared this year with behavior during the last halving year in 2020.

“Technically, Bitcoin is still in its Pre-Halving Rally phase (light blue),” he explained.

“However, Bitcoin is on the cusp of transitioning from its ‘Pre-Halving Rally’ phase into the ‘Pre-Halving Retrace’ phase (orange & dark blue circle).”

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BTC/USD price comparison. Source: Rekt Capital on X

A further post warned that BTC/USD was about to enter the riskiest part of the pre-halving phase, which he termed the “danger zone.”

“Historically, Bitcoin has performed Pre-Halving Retraces 14-28 days before the Halving,” he noted.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Source: Cointelegraph